The report forecasts a second consecutive year of falling home sales, with price growth slowing to below 5% by the end of 2027.
Fewer homes are expected to sell in Spain in 2027, even as buying one becomes more expensive. Home sales are forecast to fall by around 8% next year, a decline similar to the one projected for 2026. Home prices, meanwhile, are expected to rise by just over 10% this year, with growth slowing to below 5% by the end of 2027, according to the latest property market report from Forcadell and the University of Barcelona (UB).
The forecast marks a shift from a year ago. In November 2025, the two institutions projected that 850,000 homes would sell in 2026, up 7.5% from the previous year. Had that forecast materialized, it would have been the third-highest annual sales total in the report’s historical series, behind only 2005 and 2006. The latest report now forecasts a decline in sales and raises its 2026 price growth estimate from the 8% projected a year earlier.
A housing shortage is keeping prices on the rise
The report attributes rising prices to a shortage of homes in the face of persistently strong demand. Construction started on 137,330 homes in Spain in 2025, equivalent to 18% of the 762,540 housing starts recorded in 2006, the highest figure in the report’s historical series. The shortage helps explain why the authors expect prices to keep rising even as fewer sales go through.
Home prices in Spain have also risen faster than the European Union average. Between 2019 and 2025, prices increased by 44.8% in Spain in nominal terms, compared with an EU average of 34.5%. Saving enough for a down payment and purchase costs remains one of the biggest barriers for buyers, especially young people and households without financial help from family.
Interest rates could make buying a home harder in 2027. The report warns that new mortgages could become more expensive if inflationary pressure persists and the European Central Bank raises rates again. New lending for home purchases reached €82.749 billion in 2025, compared with €170.298 billion in 2006. According to Bank of Spain data cited in the report, fixed-rate loans accounted for 74.6% of the total amount lent in 2025.
Rents could rise by up to 4% in 2027
The report expects rents to rise by up to 4% in 2027, after a cumulative increase of 46.9% between 2018 and 2025. Rents have risen as the number of homes available to let has fallen. According to Rental Observatory data cited in the report, the number of homes available for rent fell by around 35% between December 2021 and December 2025. That figure measures how many homes were on the market at those two points in time. The total rental housing stock also includes homes that were already occupied by tenants.
